L
LEVR
Market Intelligence
Overview
WA80/100Rank #3
MARKET 03 · WA

Tri-Cities, WA

Kennewick · Pasco · Richland
Watch
80/100

Large, fast-growing youth-sports market (~324k MSA, +6.8% since 2020, ~26% under 18, ~84k under-18s) with strong incomes (Benton Co. ~$89.9k) and a deep championship sports culture. ETS already runs Spokane Valley ~148 mi away (in-state halo). BUT Ashley's 'no real competition' is wrong: a Parisi Speed School franchise is active in Pasco, Redline Athletics is rolling into Kennewick, and Elite Athletics is an entrenched, well-reviewed local — though no D1, no IMG, and nobody owns ETS's data-driven/character-first/middle-school positioning.

What Ashley flagged

"I don't see any real competition... we're seeing success in Washington... 26% under 18."

What we found  ·  Corrected

Demand and the WA halo check out (~324k MSA, +6.8%, 26% under 18, Spokane Valley ~148 mi). But "no real competition" does not hold: a Parisi Speed School franchise is live in Pasco and Redline Athletics is rolling into Kennewick — both on ETS's exact age band.

01 · THE CATCHMENT

Who lives here

Catchment population
324,334
Tri-Cities MSA (Benton + Franklin Counties), July 2025 Census estimate; three-city core ~2
5-yr growth
+6.8%
MSA +6.8% since 2020; Benton County +7.2%; Pasco +9.2% (2019-2024). Among WA's faster-grow
Under 18
26.0%
≈84,000 youth
Median household income
$89,874
Benton County (Kennewick/Richland core) $89,874 and Franklin County (Pasco) $86,714 in 2024 — a
Households with kids
Share of households with children
High schools
13
In the drivable catchment
Youth-sports culture

~12-14 high schools metro-wide (Kennewick SD 7 HS + 5 MS; Pasco SD 3+ incl. Chiawana 3,127 students; Richland SD). 168 rec/sports clubs (Cause IQ); major club/travel: Three Rivers SC, Tri-Cities Youth Soccer, Kennewick National Youth Baseball, TCGFSA fastpitch, Central WA Youth Lacrosse (45 teams). Southridge & Pasco complexes; hosts state XC championships; 4A football/baseball contenders. Strong, committed sports culture.

02 · THE SCORECARD

Five pillars

Weighted to a Market-Fit Score of 80/100.

Youth Demand Base25% weight
5/5
~84k under-18s, 26% under-18 share (>22.2% national), +6.8% MSA growth, 12-14 high schools, deep championship sports culture and dozens of club/travel programs.
Affluence & Willingness-to-Pay20% weight
4/5
Benton County $89.9k / Franklin $86.7k median HHI at top of ETS's benchmark; Kennewick city slightly below at $73.6k; high share of families with kids; parents already pay for travel ball.
Competitive Openness25% weight
3/5
NOT wide-open: active Parisi franchise (Pasco), Redline in-rollout (Kennewick), entrenched well-reviewed EAT local, D-BAT/RBI own baseball — but no D1, no IMG, no dominant entrenched box, and nobody owns ETS's positioning.
ETS White-Space Fit20% weight
4/5
VALD/data, dedicated youth box, middle-school focus, anti-exposure, and character-first are all uncontested or barely touched; faith lane only lightly held by Equip/FCA; strong in-state brand halo via Spokane Valley.
Operational Viability10% weight
4/5
Dense drivable metro (cores within ~15-20 min); flex ~$19/sf, retail ~$15/sf avg with real availability for 5-10k sq ft boxes; nearest ETS (Spokane Valley) ~148 mi — supportable, not adjacent.
03 · THE FIELD

Competitive landscape

D1 Training is absent — the bellwether

D1 Training has NO Washington Tri-Cities location. The 'D1 Training Tri-Cities' brand (FB @D1TrainingTriCities, IG @d1tricities, d1training.com/tri-cities) is in Johnson City, TENNESSEE (130 W Springbrook Dr, Johnson City, TN 37604) — the Tennessee Tri-Cities region — confirmed via Yelp/Fresha/Mindbody/D1's own page. D1 lists Washington as an 'available market' and is recruiting WA franchisees, so the territory is open but at risk. ETS should move before D1 awards it.

CompetitorTypeLocation · distancePricingReviews
Parisi Speed School Tri-Cities
1M+ athletes, 30+ years, science + sports psychology; speed/strength/injury prevention; evaluation-led funnel
Franchise5250/5252 Outlet Dr, Pasco, WA (inside Club 24 Broadmoor)
~10-15 min from central Kennewick
Not published (typical Parisi ~$150-250/mo) · Thin local footprint — 3
Redline Athletics — Kennewick
National sports-performance brand; sport-specific youth development; speed/agility/strength/injury prevention
FranchiseKennewick, WA (listed on Redline WA franchise page; specific address unconfirmed; 2025 business-license signal)
In Kennewick (status: developing / coming soon)
Not published; FLEX membership model · No local Tri-Cities revi
Elite Athletics Training (EAT) + Elite Athletics Physical Therapy
Rehab-to-performance under one roof; injury prevention; ACL/female-athlete; clinical credibility
Direct · local1798 Fowler St, Richland + 191 E Reata Rd, Kennewick
In Kennewick & Richland (0-15 min)
Membership plans (not published)4.8★ · 66 Facebook reviews, 96%
Total Impact Athletics / Total Impact TSP
Local, encouraging, multi-sport speed/footwork; family feel
Direct · local3500 W Clearwater Ave Ste C, Kennewick
In Kennewick
$80/mo (1x/wk) or $145/mo (2x/wk) — below ETS's $150-300 band5.0★ · ~14 Facebook reviews, 10
D-BAT Columbia Basin
Premier indoor baseball & softball training (sport-specific)
Indirect6416 W Hood Pl, Suite 150, Kennewick
In Kennewick
Lesson/membership based (not published) · Established local baseba
Equip Fitness (FCA-powered CrossFit)
Faith-based (Fellowship of Christian Athletes), all ages — the one local player in ETS's faith/character lane
Indirect600 Shockley Rd, Richland (behind Bethel Church)
In Richland
Non-profit / community pricing; free Saturday class · Community-driven, faith-
RBI Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities premier indoor baseball & softball facility
IndirectTri-Cities, WA
Within metro
Not published · Local baseball/softball
Sports-PT clinics (Game Changer PT, Swift Rehabilitation, Therapeutic Associates, Tri-City Orthopaedics)
Sports physical therapy, ACL prevention, return-to-sport
IndirectKennewick / Richland
Within metro
Clinical / insurance-based · Established clinical rep
04 · THE OPENING

Where ETS wins

Uncontested lanes

  • Data-driven evaluation (VALD force plates, objective Evaluate-Train-Track) — no local competitor markets athlete data; sharpest ETS wedge
  • Dedicated purpose-built youth-performance box (Parisi runs inside Club 24, EAT is PT-led, Total Impact is a small studio)
  • Tight middle-school (11-14) focus vs. everyone's 'ages 6 to pro / 8-18 all sports'
  • Character-first / faith-based culture as the headline (only Equip/FCA plays here, and it's non-profit CrossFit, not a performance academy)
  • Development-over-exposure / anti-exposure message in a travel-ball, showcase-heavy market
  • Female-athlete / ACL preventive-performance pathway (only PT clinics touch it clinically)

Unmet parent anxieties

  • Is my kid actually getting better or just getting tired? (answered by VALD data + tracking)
  • Will a coach build my kid's character, not just their 40 time? (answered by character-first culture)
  • Am I wasting money on showcases/travel instead of real development? (answered by development-over-exposure)
  • Is this a safe, dedicated place for my middle-schooler, not an adult gym? (answered by purpose-built youth box vs. Parisi-inside-Club-24)
05 · THE TEST

Meta ads market-entry test

Before any lease: a cheap, time-boxed demand test. The free-evaluation offer doubles as the data hook and the go/no-go signal.

Geo target
Kennewick centroid (99336/99338) + Richland 99352 + Pasco 99301
Radius
15 miles (covers all three cores + West Richland)
Flight
3 weeks · $1,500-$2,500 total (~$50-80/day)
Audience
Parents 30-50, top-50% HH income; interests in youth sports, travel ball, Three Rivers SC / Kennewick National Youth Baseball / fastpitch, Parisi/Redline/D1 affinity, sports-parent behaviors; lookalike from ETS Spokane Valley lead list
Offer
Free VALD/force-plate athlete evaluation ('See exactly where your athlete stands — and what to fix'); secondary CTA discounted 2-week starter. A/B data vs. character/faith vs. anti-exposure creative.
Success metric
Cost-per-qualified-lead (booked evaluation) <= $40; >= 40 booked evals; >= 25% eval-to-trial conversion
Pass threshold
If CPL > $75 AND < 20 booked evals after full spend, pause and re-test creative before committing to a lease
06 · THE CALL

Verdict

Watch
80/100
Top-tier demand/affluence and excellent white-space fit (VALD/data + character-first + middle-school + anti-exposure all uncontested), but Ashley's 'no real competition' read is wrong — Parisi is live in Pasco, Redline is moving into Kennewick, EAT is an entrenched well-reviewed local, and D1 (absent now) is recruiting WA franchisees. Formula score 80; risk-adjusted planning score 68. Run the Meta evaluation-offer test and verify Parisi/Redline/Total-Impact status on the ground; if CPL clears ~$40 and no national box has locked the territory, upgrade to 'Open first' and move before D1/Redline claims it.
Sources · 16 cited